Right now, there’s one name on everyone’s lips in the football world: Lamine Yamal.
He’s 17. He plays like a seasoned veteran. He’s the future of FC Barcelona. Some even say he’s already the best player on the planet.
Fans are raving. The media’s in love. Even other players are singing his praises.
And truthfully, it’s not hard to see why — the kid is special. We’re talking about a generational talent here. He’s going to win the Ballon d’Or one day. Probably more than once.
But if we’re being realistic, 2025 won’t be his year.
Here are five reasons why Yamal, despite all the hype and brilliance, is unlikely to win the biggest individual award in football just yet.
1. Teenagers Just Don’t Win It
Let’s get straight to the point — no teenager has ever won the Ballon d’Or. Not Messi. Not Ronaldo. Not Mbappé. Not even the legendary R9.
The youngest ever winner? Ronaldo Nazário, who won it in 1997 at the age of 21 — and even that was considered shocking at the time.
Mbappé was arguably the best player in the world in 2018 after winning the World Cup with France and bagging a treble with PSG, yet he finished fourth in Ballon d’Or voting.
Yamal might’ve been the standout star at Euro 2024, but he still walked away with the Young Player of the Tournament award — while Rodri (who was excellent, but not as eye-catching) got the main prize. The Ballon d’Or voters probably won’t think too differently.
There’s a clear trend here: when it comes to teenagers, voters get cold feet.
2. Ousmane Dembélé Could Hijack the Spotlight
Yamal isn’t the only winger having a great year. Over in Paris, Ousmane Dembélé is quietly building a strong case of his own.
If he ends up leading PSG to their first-ever Champions League title, bags the Ligue 1 top scorer title, and helps the club complete a historic quadruple — well, that’s a Ballon d’Or campaign right there.
And remember, Dembélé isn’t some random outsider. He’s a player with flair, explosiveness, and enough highlight-reel moments to sway voters. If PSG go all the way, he’ll be hard to ignore.
3. No Club World Cup for Barça
This is a big one. The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup is set to be a massive event — way bigger than previous editions — and a perfect stage for Ballon d’Or contenders to make their final impression.
The problem? Barcelona didn’t qualify.
Meanwhile, clubs like Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Bayern Munich, and PSG will be there, giving players like Mbappé, Lautaro, Kane, and Dembélé a huge opportunity to shine just before voting wraps up.
Even Lionel Messi will be there with Inter Miami. And let’s face it — you never count Messi out when it comes to awards.
4. Recency Bias Is Real — And Ruthless
Yamal might’ve just led Barcelona to a domestic treble. That’s no small feat. But unfortunately, in football, memories are short.
By the time voters cast their Ballon d’Or ballots, Yamal’s magical performances from earlier in the season might have faded from their minds — especially if someone else steals the spotlight with a Champions League final masterclass or a Club World Cup-winning run.
We saw this exact thing happen in 2024. Vinícius Jr. looked like a lock for the Ballon d’Or after his Champions League heroics. But then Spain won the Euros and Rodri took center stage. The award ended up going to him.
Football fans — and journalists — live in the moment. And Yamal won’t have another one of those “last-minute” stages to perform on this year.
5. Barcelona’s Vote Might Get Split
This might sound small, but it matters. The Ballon d’Or is a voting game. And when you have multiple players from the same team in the conversation, it can hurt everyone involved.
That’s exactly the situation at Barça right now. Alongside Yamal, players like Pedri, Raphinha, and even Lewandowski could draw votes — splitting the pro-Barcelona support.
Meanwhile, other clubs have clear frontrunners:
- Real Madrid – Kylian Mbappé
- PSG – Ousmane Dembélé
- Bayern Munich – Harry Kane
- Inter Milan – Lautaro Martínez
If those players each get the full support of their fans, national journalists, and club staff, they’ll have a much clearer path to the top.
So… Will Lamine Ever Win It?
Absolutely.
Yamal has everything it takes to become a future Ballon d’Or winner — the vision, the flair, the composure, and the big-stage mentality. He’s already rewriting records, and he’s only just getting started.
But in 2025? The odds are stacked against him.
Still, don’t be surprised if he breaks every rule in the book in the years to come.
Who do you think should win the 2025 Ballon d’Or?
Will it be Yamal, Dembélé, Mbappé, Kane, or maybe even Messi again?
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