Everton fans are angry. The decision to dock the club 10 points has reversed all the good work done by Sean Dyche’s team in the autumn.
Everton had pulled themselves away from the relegation zone after a disastrous start to the season, only to find themselves right back in it after the November International Break. The club will use all its resources to appeal, of course, which will likely lead to a trip to the Court of Arbitration for Sport. But, for the moment, at least, Everton are stuck in the drop zone.
Nonetheless, there’s plenty of hope for Everton, and that comes across in the bookmakers’ relegation odds. You can get 7/4 on Everton to be relegated. It’s not out of the question, of course, but the bookies clearly believe it’s more likely not to happen. Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton are still odds-on to go down, and many pundits have Everton slightly ahead of Bournemouth, even if the Cherries have picked up in form of late.
Everton’s performances have been better than the table shows
Not all fans like stats, but it’s worth noting how good Everton’s performances have been this season. On the xG (expected goals) and xPTS (expected points) metric, Everton sit 9th, ahead of clubs like Brighton and Manchester United. They have been woefully unlucky in matches. Of course, you can make the reverse argument that Everton have been missing their chances and lack a reliable goal scorer (Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s injury record puts him firmly in the unreliable category). But overall we can say that the good performances will likely deliver points over the course of the season.
Those betting on Everton to go down must also factor in the appeal over the points deduction.There is a chance that the ten-point deduction is reduced or taken away entirely. It’s difficult to understand whether bookies have factored that into Everton’s relegation odds. Does that price of 7/4 reflect Everton’s current position, or have the sportsbooks factored in the possibility of a successful appeal? Nonetheless, should the points deduction be reduced or taken away, Everton would be nailed on to survive the drop. We won’t speculate on how likely it is that Everton will have the deduction eased except to say that there is precedence for clubs winning these kinds of appeals.
Home form really needs to improve – fast
One thing that must improve, however, is Everton’s woeful home form. The Goodison Park faithful have witnessed just one home win at the time of writing, albeit it was a comprehensive 3-0 win over relegation rivals Bournemouth. Defeats to Wolves, Fulham and Luton at Goodison Park were characteristic of a team facing relegation. The Luton result, in particular, was a slap in the face for Everton. The Hatters used the victory as a launchpad to get out of the relegation zone. Still, if Dyche can rally the players (and fans), the home form will pick up sooner rather than later.
In the end, Everton and Sean Dyche will have to assume that the ten-point deduction will stand. One would then expect the need for 30 more points or so to survive this season. That is certainly achievable across the couple of dozen games Everton have remaining. Six wins and six draws, leaving space for 12 defeats, would equate to 30 points. The bottom line is that, on the strength of performances, there are three worse clubs than Everton this season. The deduction hurts, but, as the bookies have pointed out, they are still favoured to avoid the drop. They might need their luck to change in the coming weeks and months, however.
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