In 2024, Nottingham Forest set an unprecedented record in the Premier League, avoiding relegation with the fewest points ever earned.
Dubbed by many as a team destined to fail, Forest defied expectations with a surprising turnaround. By December 2024, under the management of Nuno Espírito Santo, Forest sat third in the league, boasting a points tally equal to Leicester City’s at the same stage of their historic 2015-16 title-winning campaign. So, what fueled this transformation?
Defensive Resilience: The Bedrock of Success
One of the hallmarks of Forest’s success has been their impenetrable defense. Since his appointment in December 2023, Nuno rejected the possession-heavy style adopted by most top teams, focusing instead on a robust and compact backline.
Key contributors to this defensive solidity include:
- Murillo, Neco Williams, and Ola Aina: Retained from the previous season, they provided continuity.
- Nikola Milenković: Signed for just £12 million, the towering Serbian defender added aerial dominance and stability, particularly at set pieces.
The results speak volumes: Forest have conceded the fewest goals from set pieces in the league this season and have switched to a zonal marking system that leverages their defensive strengths. Goalkeeper Matt Sels has been pivotal, positioning himself as a contender for the Golden Glove with consistent performances.
Game Management and Tactical Adaptability
Nuno Espírito Santo’s tactical flexibility has been a game-changer. Forest typically start matches in a 4-2-3-1 formation but frequently switch to a 3-4-2-1 setup when defending a lead. This adaptability has improved their ability to hold onto leads, winning 12 of the 15 games in which they have gone ahead this season—a significant improvement from the previous campaign.
Counterattacking Brilliance
Offensively, Forest’s strategy revolves around absorbing pressure and hitting opponents on the counterattack. This direct style has been particularly effective for veteran striker Chris Wood, who has scored 13 goals in 21 games. Wood’s ability to score a variety of goals—only four of which have been headers—has been instrumental in Forest’s improved attacking output.
Evolution of the Transfer Strategy
Forest’s transfer approach, once mocked for its scattergun nature, has evolved. After signing 30 players in their first Premier League season in 2022-23, the club refined its recruitment to target players who complement their counterattacking system. Key signings like Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, and Elliot Anderson have added pace and directness to their play, transforming Forest into one of the most effective transition teams in the league.
Challenges Ahead
Despite their current success, challenges loom for Forest.
- They rank only 15th for expected goals (xG) created, suggesting their attacking output may not be sustainable.
- Chris Wood’s scoring spree is outperforming his xG, hinting at a potential regression to the mean.
- Fitness has been on Forest’s side, with the squad experiencing relatively few injuries. A significant injury to a key player could derail their momentum.
The Road to Europe?
Having already faced most of the league’s toughest opponents, including Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Liverpool (whom they famously beat), Forest’s fixture list appears more favorable in the second half of the season. While a title challenge remains unlikely, a top-five finish—and a potential return to European football—looks increasingly plausible.
A Season to Remember
From relegation candidates to Champions League hopefuls, Nottingham Forest’s 2024-25 campaign is a testament to the power of resilience, tactical clarity, and a refined strategy. The second half of the season will determine whether they can sustain their incredible run, but one thing is clear: Nottingham Forest is a team that can no longer be underestimated.
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