Is money making football matches too predictable?

Right now, these are tremendous times if you’re a Manchester City fan. The club is battling out at the top of the table with the Gunners.

For more than a decade now, the team have been regulars at the top of the table and a part of title race drama each season. Several times in the last decade they’ve lifted the title.

Of course, you’d have to have been living under a rock not to notice the massive amount of investment the club has received, as owners pour their money into the Manchester side and try to find the finest players. Some have questioned the motives o of the club’s current owner, Sheikh Mansour, a member of the Saudi Arabian royal family, for wanting to own a club in northern England. The silverware and the players that all the investment has brought to the club has been worth it, though, for Manchester City. Fans certainly won’t be complaining.

Some, however, have become reluctant to see so much money go into Premier League clubs and other football clubs. They believe all the money is damaging football by making matches more predictable. The question is, is it?

The case for ‘Yes, it is’

It’s a common argument that players are simply being paid too much. Experts have justified the high amounts of wages players receive by highlighting the fact this is simply obeying the economic law of supply and demand.

The skills of a player like Lionel Messi, who earns more than £7 million GBP per month, are in very short supply. They can help clubs win titles. Not only is it about securing titles, however, but it’s also about making money from broadcasting rights, merchandise and ticket sales. Successful teams make more from them.

So, for teams winning to pay for such players, the investment is seriously worth it

Predictability correlates with inequality

Research conducted by the University of Dublin, the results of which were made public in 2021, has found football matches in European leagues are becoming more predictable. A computer model was found to predict the score of matches correctly 75% of the time. If you’re a fan of football betting, the results of this research may or may not be music to your ears as you could be more likely to win.

The study found a correlation between predictability and inequality. Football matches have become more predictable because inequality has grown between the richest clubs and the poorest ones. Prize money and other revenue have increased. Successful clubs can spend more on players. Out of seven European leagues, the research found the funded leagues have also seen more predictable results.

Talent gaps have been a big driver as well. This has become very clear in the past, especially in the Italian league. At one point, Lazio and Atalanta were the two teams in the next tier, the latter being well known for its homegrown talent. Both teams play fantastic football but were way off posing a serious threat to the three at the top of the table.

The case for ‘no, not necessarily’

Of course, just as there are arguments confirming money is making football more predictable, there are arguments that, for all the money in the beautiful game, you can still watch a game and not know how it’s going to end. Here are some of them:

Giant killing moments

Of course, the fact that a club is big and has lots of money doesn’t make a result a foregone conclusion. Take the FA cup. Ties with teams that don’t have quite as much investment are ties that, as much as they try to hide it, should fill big teams with dread. The competition is famous for giving smaller teams to slay giant teams. In 2018, Wigan Athletic put Manchester United out of the competition by a goal to nil.

Home teams no longer have as much of an advantage as they thought

The study by the University of Dublin did, however, reveal something else: that the home advantage is becoming less of an advantage than it has been in the past. France was one example. Whereas before, home teams had taken around two-thirds of the points in 1993, this had reduced to 59% of them in 2019. Any fan going to see a game might not as reasonably expect to see their team win as before.

Teams are just plain unpredictable

Big teams are under big pressure. They’re human. Sometimes they crack. All of it means you can never truly predict what the result of a game. Arsenal’s 2010-11 season is one example of just how unpredictable a team can be.

The team had been playing consistently throughout the season until a mix-up between Laurent Koscielny and Wojciech Szczesny allowed Obafemi Martins to grab the goal that put the League Cup in the bag for Birmingham City. Things just went from bad to worse for Arsenal from there. They lost in the FA Cup to Manchester United and then, in the Champions League, to FC Barcelona. No one saw all that coming.

Some would say money is making football more predictable. Others would say it is. Perhaps all might agree, however, that their enjoyment of games isn’t being impaired. That could be more important than anything in the world.